Capacity Trimming at US Airlines

Perhaps slash and burn would be more appropriate.

But here is a quick round up of what is going on at the US majors:

Continental - slowing deliveries but since they are pretty much stocked with narrow bodies they should be fine. The big issue is the late delivery of the 787s.

Southwest - deferred 4 2008 deliveries by 4 years. Also may still slow deliveries for 2009 and beyond. With their planes currently flying around 1/3rd empty - they have quite a lot they can do.

Big Delta, massive restructuring of the RJ fleets has seen several hundred Canadairs sent away. Even some new Embraer E-Series have left the fleet. Expect DC9s to disappear. Look for more 757s for international and indeed the use of some of the new 787-700s in long haul. Not sure I would really feel that great going from Atlanta and New York to Africa on a 757. Big cuts in the DC9 fleet are a foregone conclusion. Those old birds should be taken out at dawn and shot.

Alaska - The Canadairs are gone and slowing deliveries of the 737-800s caused mostly by the Boeing strike will probably hold up for 2008/9 but I suspect we shall see deferrals

United - cutting 100 planes (nearly 25% of the fleet) was a big thrust. They still haven't cut back enough staff but that's another story. United has taken a financial hit by writing off the deposits on several airbus planes. Up to 42 deliveries could be cancelled.

The only one changing is American. They are accelerating the 737-800 deliveries and ordering up to 100 787s. At the same time not waiting for the 787s they have ordered a lot of winglets for the 767s.

"Given the cost efficiency of the 737-800 vs. the MD-80, this makes a lot of sense, particularly in this volatile fuel environment," American CEO Gerard Arpey said. "We’re going to continue to look for opportunities to move even faster." I guess he has not looked too closely at the numbers. right now the MD80 is a very efficient aircraft for its size. Just ask Allegiant who is picking them up almost as fast as American and others are dropping them.

Cheers