That depressing and awful UK Summer had a positive effect on UK Enplanements - particularly at LHR and LGW who both experienced growth in August and September against a backdrop of declines during the first half year.
We should however continue to see soft results from the two primary London Airports as carriers move capacity to mainland Europe.
Here is our top line analysis of the UK Results for September:
Manchester - continues to decline. Shift to the regions and growth of Liverpool are the primary reasons.
Stansted - slow growth only 2.5% compared to high single and double digit growth we are used to seeing. With Air Berlin pulling back moderately and the new terminal not yet available for use - the summer rush was clearly about all that the facility could handle. We are seeing Ryanair pulling back some capacity planned for the fall and winter months. Stansted is poised to overtake MAN as the UK's 3rd largest airport.
London City - another spectacular growth for LCY up nearly 30%.
Upcoming
The opening this month (or next) of the new Eurostar terminal at St Pancras will have some impact most likely on Stansted. It should be remembered that every time a Eurostar train leaves the station it is the same as watching 2 fully loaded 747s take off.
Comment on BAA and raising of rates. The UK regulator seems to be taking a leaf out of the German regulators book and RAISING rates. While this comes as much relief to the Spanish owners of BAA it can only serve to drive more traffic away. We believe that separating all the airports in BAA's portfolio would be counterproductive. However separating STN from the other two would be beneficial allowing for more competition on one of the most scarce of resources - slots and tarmac.
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