Knowledge and Insight without the hard work

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

And then there were ... 2? LCCs in Europe

GB Airways surprise capture by easyJet caught BA knapping. The big network king has suffered several defections over the last year. First there was BMED (founded by Lord Hesketh for those of you who are trivia buffs). Sold to BMI from under the noses of Willy and Co. Who promptly sold back BA's slots to them for more than the cost of the airline they bought. Go figure!

The news this week of Franchise partner GB Airways selling to easyJet was followed within a day or so by Loganair - one of the smallest of the franchises - who has also terminated their agreement.

The loser is clearly BA - but who is the winner. Some pundits are opining that this will raise the bar even higher for other LCCs. As we have said many times we believe that the market has fragmented and led to a new HVC - Hybrid Value Carrier model. Either network carriers coming down into the LCC type model or LCCs going up.

For the European market we see very few sticking to the purist (or purest) model. Ryanair for sure is one of them. However we believe that the others will morph into the HVC middle ground. Already we see many - even BA charging for value added services. We see consolidation of the kind of models that has united many brands in Germany under the Air Berlin management. (LTU, Condor, Germania, DBA etc). The dominance of the LCCs in different markets is clearly having effect. With BA pulling back still from Gatwick - easyJet's acquisition of GB Airways will bring a lot more slots and traffic to its new best friend hub at LGW. Interestingly this could also mean over time an opportunity for EZ to expand into a long haul model or at the very least a partnership with Virgin Atlantic.

Stay tuned folks this is going to be interesting. With Sir Michael Bishop soon to retire (he is getting quite old now) BMI cannot hope to remain independent for much longer. Let's just see how things work themselves out.

Cheers

Timothy

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